Equity SIP Returns Simulator: An Indian Context

I was recently asked the question 'If I invest 6k SIP in mutual funds how much can I accumulate in 10 years?' on Quora, a Q&A site. I usually ignore questions like these, because there are a gazillion tools available online that calculate SIP values based on a required rate. Then I realized, there are no tools available, in the Indian context, that calculate SIP values based on historical averages and standard deviations. I'm a big fan of probabilities, reversions to mean and Excel models. So I pushed myself to build one!

First things first. I'd like to credit Value Research Online, which is a treasure trove of data, specifically those related to Mutual Funds. For example, you could make a simple Google search on 'SIP Returns in India' and end up with this page containing the returns data for almost all the popular Mutual Fund schemes in India. I filtered for all Equity Funds except the ones that are Sectoral and/or closed. The end results was the data pertaining to 462 different Mutual Fund schemes, for 6 different investment periods: a total of 2,772 individual data points.

Here is how the data pans out for the different types of Mutual Fund schemes:

Large & Mid Cap

Multi Cap

Large Cap

Mid Cap

Small Cap

Value

ELSS

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What's the point of going through all this data, you ask? Well, the model I built works based on the averages of these historical returns and the standard deviation associated with these returns. Here is how the model looks like (A link to the Google Sheet upload of the model is also given below):

(Download Equity SIP Returns Simulator (India))

Notes on using the model:

• Downloads can be made in Google Sheets from File -> Download As
• The values in the middle column (In the screenshot, the 14.88% column) are the most probable
• You can modify the cells highlighted in yellow only. Changing anything else will mess up the model.
• The investments are per month (So, in the screenshot, it is Rs. 6000 per month)
• In order to expand the investment horizon, read the comment on cell A1.
• As credited earlier, the data is taken from Value Research Online. I do not own any of the data.
• There are two hidden sheets: one with the data from VRO and one with a charts of returns/deviation which gets automatically updated based on the changes you make to the ‘Type of Mutual Fund’. You can unhide them if you like. But it’s better to keep them hidden, lest you make changes to them by mistake.
• I will try my best to update the historical data from VRO (Or other sources) at least on an yearly basis, so the model stays relevant.

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I hope the model is useful to you. If you have any suggestions on the improvements I can make, please feel free to comment down below. The model is easy to use and more importantly -- it's free to download. So don't be shy. Share the model with your friends and family. Happy investing!