I was recently touring the beautiful hill station of Munnar in Kerala. To my surprise, the way to Munnar and back was covered with several hoardings of Kajaria Ceramics, the market leader in the Tiles segment. I had been following it earlier on and off, and with the recent slide in its share price, I thought I should whip out my Valuation model to see if the correction was justified.
Monday, 12 November 2018
Sunday, 4 November 2018
CCL Products (India) Valuation: Freshly Brewed Value
Everyone loves coffee and not just in India. Coffee is loved globally and even today, it is one of the most sought-average hot beverage by a long margin. So, it's not far-fetched to say that CCL Products (India) is in a sweet spot, operating in such a niche industry.
Sunday, 7 October 2018
DHFL Valuation: When the Facts Change..
Disclaimer: After the Cobrapost expose, there has been a lot of noise around whether the numbers reported by DHFL are genuine or not. While a rebuttal from the Management is expected, as a responsible student of valuation, I ask that you take this post with a mountain of salt. There's a famous quote in relation to Statistical Analysis that goes "Garbage in, garbage out". Put another way, if it actually turns out that the numbers were indeed misleading, then this post would be too. In that regard, I ask that you exercise due caution.
Sunday, 23 September 2018
Goodyear India Valuation - A 'Practical Thought' Model for Valuing Equities
In his book "Poor Charlie's Almanac", Berkshire Hathaway's Vice Chairman Mr. Charlie Munger talks about an informal speech he gave in 1996, titled "Practical Thought About Practical Thought?". He warns that not many people understood his talk and it was practically a communication failure. But at the crux of this speech lies hidden a valuation technique that acts a saving grace for those averse to intrinsic valuation methods such as the DCF or the DDM.
Wednesday, 19 September 2018
Five Below Valuation: Scaling, $5 At A Time
Recently, I was thinking about valuing a company traded outside India and it came to me as a very interesting proposition when someone suggested that I value Five Below. FIVE (NASDAQ) is a chain of discount stores in the US that sells all its products for $5 or below. And does it well.
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